Earth Syst. Atmospheres 121, 77107728 (2016). Therefore, solid precipitation is projected to remain almost constant at the evolving glaciers mean altitude independently from the future climate scenarios, while air temperature is projected to drive future glacier-wide mass changes (Fig. Differences in projected glacier changes become more pronounced from the second half of the century, when about half of the initial 2015 ice volume has already been lost independent of the considered scenario. Fluctuations of the Nisqually Glacier, Mt. Rainier, Washington, since The estimated ice thickness for Mer de Glace (28.87km2 in 2015) was increased by 25% in order to correct the bias with respect to field observations31. Evol. This oversensitivity directly results from the fact that temperature-index models rely on linear relationships between PDDs and melt and that these models are calibrated with past MB and climate data. Our projections highlight the almost complete disappearance of all glaciers outside the Mont-Blanc and Pelvoux (Ecrins region) massifs under RCP 4.5 (Fig. Annual glacier-wide mass balance (MB) is estimated to remain stable at around 1.2m.w.e. Thank you for visiting nature.com. 2a). 60, 11401154 (2014). Bartk, B. et al. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Deep artificial neural networks (ANNs) are nonlinear models that offer an alternative approach to these classic methods. 33, 645671 (2005). This synthetic experiment is an approximation of what might occur in other glacierized regions with ice caps. We acknowledge the more than 50 years of glaciological monitoring performed by the GLACIOCLIM French National Observatory (https://glacioclim.osug.fr), which provided essential observations for our modelling study. Google Scholar. Finally, there are differences as well in the glacier dynamics of both models, with ALPGM using a glacier-specific parameterized approach and GloGEMflow explicitly reproducing the ice flow dynamics. . Nevertheless, we previously demonstrated that glacier surface area is not an important predictor of MB changes in our models29, and ice caps evolve mostly through thinning and not shrinking (Fig. Three different types of cross validation were performed: a Leave-One-Glacier-Out (LOGO), a Leave-One-Year-Out (LOYO) and a Leave-Some-Years-and-Glaciers-Out (LSYGO). The Cryosphere 12, 13671386 (2018). Climate Change Indicators: Glaciers | US EPA Both the Lasso and the temperature-index MB model rely on linear relationships between PDDs, solid precipitation and MB. Ice melt sensitivity to PDDs strongly decreases with increasing summer temperatures, whereas snow melt sensitivity changes at a smaller rate34. Magnin, F., Haeberli, W., Linsbauer, A., Deline, P. & Ravanel, L. Estimating glacier-bed overdeepenings as possible sites of future lakes in the de-glaciating Mont Blanc massif (Western European Alps). Swiss glaciers have displayed less negative MB rates than French glaciers during the last decades, thus likely introducing a bias in simulations specific to the French Alps. An increase in the thickness of ice in the higher portion of the Nisqually Glacier was first observed by Arthur Johnson Reference Johnson 1 about ten years ago, and the progress of this "wave" of increased ice thickness has been measured by Johnson each year since that time. Glacier topography is a crucial driver of future glacier projections and is expected to play an important role in determining the magnitude that nonlinearities will have on the mass balance signal: ice caps and large flatter glaciers are expected to be more influenced by these nonlinear sensitivities than steep mountain glaciers in a warming climate.

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